ΘTheta Decay Investing

Economic Indicators

The economy and market risk, updated hourly from FRED. Hover a chart for exact readings.

Economy

Inflation, jobs, interest rates and growth.

CPI Inflation

Consumer prices, % change from a year ago

3.35%
▲ 0.05 · Aug 2026
FRED: CPIAUCSL

Unemployment Rate

Share of the labor force without a job

4.10%
■ 0.00 · Aug 2026
FRED: UNRATE

Fed Funds Rate

Effective federal funds rate, monthly average

3.63%
■ 0.00 · Aug 2026
FRED: FEDFUNDS

10-Year Treasury Yield

Market yield on 10-year Treasuries, weekly average

5.05%
▲ 0.06 · Sep 25, 2026
FRED: DGS10

Real GDP Growth

Quarterly change, seasonally adjusted annual rate

1.50%
▼ 0.60 · Q2 2026
FRED: A191RL1Q225SBEA

Market Risk

How nervous stock and bond investors are right now.

VIX Volatility Index

Expected 30-day S&P 500 volatility, daily close

14.21
▼ 0.66 · Sep 22, 2026

What it means: A rising VIX means traders expect bigger stock swings ahead: readings above 30 usually signal fear, while readings below 15 signal calm or even complacency.

FRED: VIXCLS

Corporate Credit Spreads

Extra yield over Treasuries (option-adjusted), daily close

High yield
2.80%▲ 0.07
Investment grade
0.79%▲ 0.02
Sep 24, 2026

What it means: Widening spreads mean lenders are demanding more pay to take on corporate risk, an early warning of economic stress that often shows up before stocks fall.

FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2, BAMLC0A0CM · FRED only provides the most recent 3 years of ICE BofA data.

Baa Corporate Spread

Moody's Baa corporate bond yield minus 10-year Treasury, daily

1.39%
■ 0.00 · Sep 24, 2026

What it means: This long-running gauge of corporate credit risk tends to jump heading into recessions, so a steady climb suggests the bond market sees trouble coming.

FRED: BAA10Y

Margin Debt

Money investors have borrowed from brokers to buy securities, monthly

$1.45T
▲ 0.04 · Aug 2026

What it means: Rising margin debt means investors are borrowing more to bet on stocks, and record highs can signal overconfidence that turns into forced selling when markets drop.

FINRA Margin Statistics